Even if David Cameron loses the next election he will leave the idea of yearning desire for EU withdrawal. This issue will not go away - the die is cast. He can't win concessions from the EU because they simply can't make one rule for the UK and different ones for the other members. This would be unfair.
Big business pro-European newspapers say The UK is on a downward road to EU withdrawal - tremble, tremble. I think it could also be argued that we were on a downward road to European political union, which most Brits never wanted in the first place - yawn, yawn.
It's not that Brits dislike Europe - they want to get along with fellow Europeans, but do not want to be governed by them. The reasons for this are much more simplistic then Banking regulation and human rights law, which the average British voter does not care about. The ruling classes are more angered by such laws, but they do not account for the majority of the voters.
There have been good working laws from Europe too and although Brits were not too keen on the EU, they never really wanted to get up on a soapbox over financial issues concerning bank regulation and all. They often saw good laws brought in by well-meaning yet un-elected people. There was not much interest in big boy politics for Brit political classes and other Euro political classes. Let them squabble and get on with it, while we might sigh with detached amusement over wrong shaped banana stories.
Then the problem concerning European law of free movement of people throughout the EU became apparent when Eastern European countries joined the EU. It has resulted in mass and very irresponsible migration, leaving our country accountable for vast numbers of migrants. One might argue that Spain has vast numbers of Brits living out there, but the reality is, that most of these Brits take wealth out there too. The migrants coming to the UK don't. Like it or not, it is a simple truth and voting people are prejudice - like that or not. They become quite and resentful with no words to argue against trendy liberals who talk them down or smile patronisingly while pretending to listen.
Then one day the EU passes financial laws that stamp on the Brit big boy's toes and all of a sudden, the EU is forcing us into a political union - they have enforced a single currency on nations that can't cope the way one overall powerful nation economy is.
Er... tell the electorate something they don't know, or tell them something they care about. We're a bit more fickle than that, but the two heavyweights (UK political class v EU political class) don't get the picture.
Our Brit ruling classes seem to have said: "Oh dear, never mind let's threaten the EU and tell them to make new laws for us or we'll get the electorate, who are simmering nicely and offer a referendum."
The EU are too financially hamstrung with the currency crisis and the Mediterranean nations that no one realised was cooking the books - hmmm! Also, they can't and will not entertain the grumbling financial institutions of the UK without new legislation. They can't afford too and irresponsible mass migration will blow over. Perhaps it will one day, but not in time for the UK in the EU.
Then the Brit rank and file voter see UKIP has suddenly given the voter a real voice. "Hello, big boys out there - our little issue on mass migration is still very important to us and no one is listening. Your squabble does not matter, we want out anyway."
The EU does not realise they don't have anything we want. They do have this freedom of mass migrations, which we are sure that we don't want and that is all the rank and file voter can see. It's like they are trying to sell us excrement with sugar and our Brit ruling classes are saying; "We will not let you sell them excrement with sugar unless you give us banking and other financial withdrawal rights." Don't bother big boys, we can tell them ourselves and you can run your financial institutions under your laws, but hey, you can't have the benefits of the EU because we don't give a dead rat's backside about it. Oh dear, that wasn't in the script, was it?
The notion of UK leaving the EU is now very real and desirable. I don't think people in Britain are scared of this - many look forward to it, and the key issue is this uncontrollable migration from eastern Europe. This is not what bothers Tories or the political classes. They are more interested in EU regulation upon the city of London and Tory desires for EU withdrawal are based upon this matter of controlling huge corporate finance industries inside the UK. As the political ruling classes go; they can tap into this immigration rank and file frustration for their own ends - large resentful masses of people to use for their own desires, but the notion that we are real people with issues of our own does not seem to have entered the script. Playing politics with people must involve the real important issues at hand and if we are reading from different scripts it is very easy to get wrong. Perhaps the resentful masses are grateful too because now the EU is treading on our big boy's toes, they have found an unwitting and unwilling champion who accidentally opened Pandora's box for us.
David Cameron thought calling the EU's bluff on a referendum would quash UKIP and the notion of the UK leaving the EU. He would force the EU to the negotiating table and then get a better EU deal that he believes the rank and file voters want. It has not and all we see is more excrement with sugar. It just stokes the fire more. It is mostly immigration that the majority of voters are concerned with and they don't care about the other things. The British political classes don't seem to realise this and neither does the EU. They are too busy fighting other battles while this uncontrolled immigration issue is locked away. UKIP will not go away because they keep arguing on this matter at home, where it counts. In the EU Parliament, Nigel Farage can switch into EU issues for his own ends, concerning the failing currency and the un-elected elite. He does not make too much of mass migration in the Euro Parliament because there is a slight danger that someone might have the notion of doing something about it - clever boy Nigel.
The EU is checkmated on Brit desires to withdraw from the EU. (The real rank and file I mean) The Brit political elite feels they may have shot themselves in the foot too because they wrongly believed they might blackmail the EU to make concessions or hoodwink the voters to pretend they are getting them. It has not worked because of UKIP who are screaming "Beware of being hoodwinked."
The political classes are being too closely scrutinised now and we (the real rank and file voters) are aware that the Tories might pretend to get meaningful concessions that they will try to sell the UK voters before the referendum. It'll just be more excrement with sugar. More of what we don't give a hoot about.
Unfortunately for the UK political class and the EU; (both contestants who do not want the UK leaving the Union), The matter has slipped from both grasps. Neither are going to get what they want because they are arguing on issues that do not concern the main electorate.
No matter how the leading political parties dance around this issue or try to play it down; the average voter feels his country is being taken away. All other laws concerning city finance and regulation from the EU don't create too much interest to most voters. Go North, West, East and South across the Isles and the average people are very concerned about mass migration. London is where all the fat cats live and most rank and file voters have little interest in EU regulation, but more in EU law allowing mass population movement across the EU. Every time leading politicians try to play this down it drives people to UKIP. Call people fascist, racist or whatever you may like - they are fed up with being put down on these issues and they can vote and someone has captured the imagination for better or worse.
UKIP
This political party might not have proper leadership policies on the internal welfare of our country, but the play host to such ideas and address the key issues. The mass migration topic is the big hot potato that they are not scared to tackle and other things can go hang for now (even though this might be fickle and wrong in the long run.) People are not racist for this, though we are prejudice, which can't be helped. Also, it is possible that UKIP might also have concrete plans other than such things as uncontrolled migration - who knows? Conservatives or Labour will not win the argument on this, even if they are right because David Cameron has put the cat among the pigeons with the referendum promise.
The opposition Labour party will not voice an opinion either way. If they want to champion EU solidarity, they must start to champion the complete in vote. That would mean nothing on uncontrolled migration and no party is going to be seen doing such a thing. This, of course, seems suicidal at such a moment in time.
On the other hand, what would happen if Europe allowed individual states across Europe to control migration in-house? By this I mean the EU must revise the free movement of people within the Union for now. Make that law across the EU. This is, after all, what is going to cause UK voters to leave the EU. It is why I will vote for UKIP. It will also cause problems in other nations too. Can Germany and France take all these peoples?
The only press that seems to grasp this is the Irish media that looks into the UK from outside. They seem to know what is going on more than our own big newspapers. Britain's political classes seem to be dancing around the hot potato of uncontrolled and very irresponsible mass migration. It has to be tackled. We don't dislike eastern Europeans and many are very friendly people who do work hard, but there are too many coming here and we are fed up with it being played down when we complain.
Even if the Tories lose the next election, which seems very likely, the referendum will not go away. I believe UKIP might get enough votes to prop up a government that would allow one. Unless Cameron stays in office till the election and makes the sacrifice of not joining such an alliance allowing an uncommitted Labour party in power without a promise of an EU referendum. It is possible that our political classes might kick the can further down the road again.
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